Are NFL superteams likely to secure a Super Bowl victory? Can the Rams achieve this?

The Los Angeles Rams have emerged as the frontrunners for Super Bowl LXI, following a series of bold offseason moves that have positioned them as a formidable contender. Under the leadership of head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have made significant roster changes, including the acquisition of cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, which has strengthened their secondary. This strategic maneuvering came at the expense of the Kansas City Chiefs, a potential rival in the postseason.

In a surprising twist, the Rams also drafted quarterback Ty Simpson, signaling a potential transition from veteran Matthew Stafford. However, the most impactful decision came when general manager Les Snead orchestrated a blockbuster trade, sending Jared Verse and three draft picks to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. This aggressive approach has led many analysts to label the Rams as prohibitive favorites to claim the Lombardi Trophy this season.

Despite the Rams' current status, history suggests that being a preseason favorite does not guarantee success. In 2025, for instance, none of the 68 analysts surveyed predicted the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots would reach the playoffs, while many favored teams like the Chiefs and Lions ultimately fell short. A review of the last 15 years of NFL history reveals that heavily favored teams often struggle to meet expectations, with only two out of the top 15 preseason favorites since 1990 actually winning the Super Bowl.

This trend raises questions about the Rams' chances. Currently, they hold +550 odds at DraftKings, translating to a 12.5% implied probability of winning the championship, which is significantly higher than any other team. However, the Rams' path to the Super Bowl is fraught with challenges, including a tough schedule and the potential emergence of other strong contenders in the NFC.

As the Rams prepare for the upcoming season, they face several hurdles that could derail their championship aspirations. The NFC West remains a competitive division, with the Seahawks and 49ers both poised to challenge for playoff spots. Additionally, injuries to key players, particularly Stafford, could significantly impact the team's performance. The Rams' recent history of injuries, including a disastrous 2022 season, serves as a cautionary tale for fans and analysts alike.

Moreover, the Rams' special teams have been a source of concern, having ranked poorly in DVOA last season. Any missteps in this area could prove costly in tight games. While the Rams are undoubtedly a talented team, the unpredictability of the NFL means that their journey to the Super Bowl will require not only skill but also a fair amount of luck.