As the 2026 NFL season reaches the five-week mark, it is time to hold our preseason projections accountable. Before the opening kickoff, we set a bold, high-stakes prediction for every franchise in the league—ambitious targets that were designed to test the limits of player and team performance. With nearly a third of the season now in the books, the landscape has shifted, providing a clear view of which forecasts are gaining momentum and which have hit a wall.
Some predictions remain firmly on target, while others have been rendered obsolete by injuries, performance dips, or evolving team dynamics. In instances where the original outlook no longer aligns with the on-field reality, we have opted to scrap the initial goal in favor of a fresh, updated prediction that better reflects the current trajectory of the team and its key contributors.
Tracking the Hits and Misses
Several players are currently tracking toward their preseason benchmarks. Keon Coleman, for instance, remains on pace for a career-best season with 224 receiving yards, while tight end Isaiah Likely has emerged as a primary target for the Giants, leading the team with 33 receptions. Conversely, some forecasts have proven difficult to sustain. The Bears’ hope of leading the league in team open score has been abandoned, leading to a new focus on offensive tackle Darnell Wright, who is now being monitored for a potential top-five finish in Protector of the Year voting.
Injury-related setbacks have also forced adjustments. Rashee Rice’s pursuit of 1,300 receiving yards has been recalibrated to a more attainable 1,100-yard goal following a hamstring issue. Similarly, the Chargers’ Joe Alt has struggled with penalties and health, prompting a shift in focus toward cornerback Tarheeb Still, who is emerging as a potential Pro Bowl snub candidate despite his strong start in coverage.
Strategic Pivots and New Outlooks
The mid-season review has also highlighted surprising developments across the league. In Minnesota, the initial expectation for Kyler Murray to reach the top 12 in QBR has been replaced by a bold projection for linebacker Blake Cashman to record at least nine sacks, a testament to his frequent usage as a pass rusher in Brian Flores’ defensive scheme. Meanwhile, in Washington, the focus has turned to running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who is tasked with turning his season-long rushing yards over expected into positive territory after a promising performance in Week 5.
Other teams continue to hold out hope for their original predictions. Jordan Love’s MVP candidacy, once considered a long shot after a slow start, gained new life following a dominant 94 QBR performance against the Bears. Similarly, the Ravens’ defense remains in the hunt for a top-four EPA ranking, provided they can leverage their defensive depth in the second half of the year. As the season progresses, these benchmarks will continue to serve as a barometer for the league’s most intriguing storylines.
