World No. 1
For Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, the match represents a chance to secure her first major title of the year. Meanwhile, Pegula is aiming to break through for her maiden Grand Slam trophy, fueled by a desire to avenge previous losses to the Belarusian at this venue in 2024 and 2025.
A Battle of Form and History
Sabalenka enters the encounter with a formidable record at majors, having reached the quarterfinals or better at every Slam since Wimbledon 2021. Despite a season marked by inconsistent results, the top seed has looked sharp in New York, overcoming a stiff challenge from Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka displayed immense composure to win that match 7-6 (1), 3-6, 7-6 (10-7), sealing the victory with a second-serve ace in the deciding tiebreak. She currently holds a 9-4 career head-to-head advantage over Pegula, including a perfect record in their three previous meetings at the major level.
Pegula, however, arrives at the semifinal as one of the most in-form players on the tour, boasting a season-leading 50 match wins. The 32-year-old demonstrated her resilience in the quarterfinals against Emma Navarro, overcoming a slow start and early frustration to secure a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory. Having reached the final in both Washington D.C. and Cincinnati earlier this summer, Pegula believes her ability to change the direction of the ball and neutralize Sabalenka’s pace will be the key to shifting the momentum in her favor.
Tactical Approaches and Expectations
Both players have emphasized the importance of mental fortitude and service consistency ahead of Thursday’s clash. Sabalenka has spoken of her intent to focus on her own game and block out external noise, while Pegula remains committed to her strategy of taking calculated risks on returns and forcing her opponent to move. The American, who will enjoy the support of the home crowd, acknowledged that Sabalenka’s aggressive style has historically pushed her to elevate her own performance.
With Sabalenka chasing a third consecutive US Open title and Pegula seeking her first major final, the match promises to be a high-intensity battle. Given that their four most recent meetings have all extended to three sets, the semifinal is expected to be a closely contested affair that could once again come down to the final points.
