MEM
The 2026-27 NBA season has undergone a rapid transformation less than two weeks after tip-off. While the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and defending champion New York Knicks entered the year as the clear favorites, a combination of injury crises and inconsistent performances has significantly leveled the playing field. Preseason projections that heavily favored this trio have seen their combined championship probability drop from roughly 60 percent to 38 percent.
The most dramatic shift has occurred in Oklahoma City, where a string of injuries has decimated the roster. The Thunder, who were expected to contend for the title, are currently without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, both of whom suffered potentially season-ending injuries. Additionally, Chet Holmgren is sidelined for at least two months with a patellar tendon tear, and Alex Caruso is managing an ankle sprain. This depletion has resulted in consecutive double-digit losses, leaving the team in a precarious position early in the campaign.
Shifting Contenders and MVP Uncertainty
While the Thunder struggle, other preseason powerhouses have also shown vulnerability. The Knicks have opened with a 2-4 record, while the Spurs, despite a 4-2 start, have struggled to dominate against tougher opponents. This instability has provided an opening for second-tier contenders to gain momentum. The Houston Rockets have emerged as an early standout with a 5-1 record, including victories over both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, and Boston Celtics have combined for a 16-3 start, signaling a potential shift in the balance of power across the league.
The race for the MVP award is similarly unsettled. Recent winners Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have experienced uncharacteristic statistical dips, currently ranking 24th and 16th respectively in player efficiency rating. With voter fatigue often complicating the path for repeat winners, their early-season struggles have opened the door for other candidates.
The league-wide injury trend, which has already seen a full roster's worth of stars miss time, has sparked ongoing discussions regarding the physical toll of the current schedule. As teams navigate these early challenges, the landscape of the 2026-27 season appears far more volatile than anticipated, with the potential for in-season roster adjustments to play a decisive role in the final standings.