In a zero-sum league, the pursuit of improvement for some inevitably forces a decline for others. While optimism often dominates the preseason narrative, historical data regarding turnover margins, injury luck, and schedule strength provides a sobering look at which teams are most likely to see their win totals dip in 2026. Over the past several years, identifying these regression candidates has proven remarkably accurate, with a high success rate in predicting teams that fall short of their previous performance benchmarks.
The following analysis examines five franchises—the
The Challenge of Sustaining Success
The Chicago Bears enter the 2026 season as a primary candidate for regression, largely due to an extraordinary turnover margin in 2025. Posting a plus-22 turnover differential, the Bears benefited from a league-low 11 giveaways and a high fumble recovery rate. History suggests such margins rarely repeat, and with significant turnover in the defensive personnel—including the departure of key starters like Kevin Byard and Tremaine Edmunds—the team faces a difficult transition. While the offense, led by Caleb Williams and offensive architect Ben Johnson, shows promise, the defense’s inability to generate consistent pressure remains a concern that could limit the team's ceiling.
Similarly, the Denver Broncos are looking to build on a 14-win campaign, yet they face the reality of a roster that was exceptionally healthy in 2025. With the league's third-healthiest defense last season, Denver’s ability to maintain that level of availability is statistically improbable. Furthermore, the defense showed signs of fatigue late in the year, and the offense, despite the addition of Jaylen Waddle, must improve its efficiency to compensate for a likely defensive regression. With a schedule that may prove tougher than initial projections suggest, the Broncos appear poised to finish in the 10-to-11-win range.
Navigating Tougher Schedules and Roster Turnover
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers both face distinct challenges after surprising 2025 campaigns. For Jacksonville, the massive nine-win jump from 2024 to 2025 is a classic indicator of potential regression. The Jaguars benefited significantly from facing backup quarterbacks in over 40% of their dropbacks, a trend unlikely to continue. Additionally, playing two home games in London and managing a reduced capacity at EverBank Stadium creates a unique disadvantage that may impact their home-field advantage.
Carolina, meanwhile, finds itself in a division where the margins for error were razor-thin. Despite a playoff appearance, advanced metrics like FPI and DVOA consistently ranked the Panthers toward the bottom of the league. With a significantly tougher schedule and a series of preseason injuries—including the loss of right tackle Taylor Moton and edge rusher Nic Scourton—the Panthers face a difficult road to repeating their success. Finally, the New England Patriots face the most daunting task: overcoming the easiest schedule in the league from 2025. Historical data shows that teams coming off such favorable slates almost always see their win totals decline as they face more formidable opponents, and with limited depth and a defense that relied heavily on situational luck, the Patriots may struggle to maintain their Super Bowl-contending form.
